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Analysis of Electronic Component Industry Trends

In March 2008, iSuppli estimated that global semiconductor overstock had dropped to $2.9 billion in Q1, down 14.6% from $3.4 billion in Q4 2007. However, by May, due to the sluggish performance of consumer electronics markets such as digital TVs, MP3 players, and digital cameras, along with slowed shipments of PCs and mobile phones, iSuppli revised its Q1 estimate up to $3.6 billion and adjusted Q4 2007's figure down to $2.3 billion. Despite production cuts, the demand for end-user electronics remained weak, causing delays in order fulfillment and exacerbating inventory overstock. iSuppli projected that global semiconductor inventory would remain high in Q2 due to poor market visibility.
 
To tackle increasing chip manufacturing costs and improve efficiency, TSMC, Intel, and Samsung jointly announced plans to develop 18-inch wafers. Historically, the semiconductor industry has seen a generational shift in wafer sizes approximately every 10 years—200mm wafers were introduced in 1991, followed by 300mm wafers in 2001. Larger wafers allow for more chips per wafer, reducing manufacturing costs. The three companies anticipated that by 2012, the industry would transition to 450mm wafers, potentially doubling chip output per wafer compared to 300mm wafers. This shift would not only lower production costs but also reduce energy consumption, air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and water usage.
 
Building a 450mm wafer fab is estimated to cost $10 billion, triple the cost of a 300mm fab. The companies are collaborating with Other semiconductor firms to ensure the readiness of components, infrastructure, and technologies for the 450mm transition, along with standardized processes and testing.
 
In Q1 2008, silicon wafer shipments remained stable, with 300mm wafers continuing to grow. According to the Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG), the global silicon wafer shipment area in Q1 2008 was 2.163 billion square inches, a 3% year-over-year increase but a 1% sequential decline due to seasonal and cautious industry behavior.
 
Global mobile phone shipments grew 17% year-over-year in Q1 2008, reaching 296 million units, though this was a 12.4% decline from Q4 2007. The top five manufacturers—Nokia, Samsung, Motorola, LG, and Sony Ericsson—experienced shifts in market share rankings. Nokia maintained the top position with 115.5 million units shipped, a 26.8% year-over-year increase but a 13.5% sequential decline, holding a 39% market share. Nokia's shipments in China grew to 21 million units, accounting for 18.2% of its global shipments, up from 14.5% in Q1 2007.
 
Samsung ranked second with its market share rising to 15.6% from 13.7% in Q4 2007. Motorola fell to third, with its market share dropping to 9.3% from 12.1%. LG ranked fourth, with its market share increasing to 8.2% from 7.0%. Sony Ericsson came in fifth, with its market share declining to 7.5% from 9.1%.
 
In China, CCID data indicated stable growth in mobile phone sales and revenue in Q1 2008, unaffected by seasonal factors. Sales reached 43.05 million units, and revenue totaled 49 billion yuan, up 4.02% and 7.22% respectively from Q4 2007. The top five brands in the domestic market were Nokia, Samsung, Motorola, Tianyu, and Sony Ericsson, with market shares of 37.4%, 14.1%, 8.5%, 5.0%, and 3.0%, respectively.
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